Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.173280 0.202513 0.234626 0.272446 0.315691 0.363516 0.420330
2025-11-09 0.121496 0.160124 0.207206 0.268453 0.345614 0.439159 0.560663
2025-11-16 0.092938 0.134110 0.188339 0.264212 0.366705 0.499295 0.682551
2025-11-23 0.072432 0.112955 0.169957 0.254719 0.375995 0.541397 0.781714
2025-11-30 0.064368 0.107083 0.170522 0.269670 0.418269 0.629670 0.949207
2025-12-07 0.052774 0.093554 0.157416 0.262138 0.426211 0.669140 1.050223
2025-12-14 0.043544 0.081982 0.145255 0.253759 0.430859 0.702838 1.144120
2025-12-21 0.036632 0.073004 0.135744 0.247905 0.438009 0.739875 1.244872
2025-12-28 0.032606 0.068404 0.132796 0.252250 0.461562 0.803793 1.391774
2026-01-04 0.029836 0.065642 0.132587 0.261049 0.493046 0.882510 1.567829
2026-01-11 0.027003 0.062257 0.130710 0.266453 0.518849 0.953419 1.735758
2026-01-18 0.024272 0.058601 0.127774 0.269401 0.540257 1.018095 1.897308
2026-01-25 0.021427 0.054297 0.123136 0.268823 0.555632 1.074355 2.050236
2026-02-01 0.018611 0.049566 0.117002 0.264596 0.563766 1.118505 2.185526
2026-02-08 0.016205 0.045326 0.111270 0.260390 0.571305 1.161802 2.321938
2026-02-15 0.013764 0.040516 0.103568 0.251020 0.567443 1.183200 2.419170
2026-02-22 0.013272 0.040580 0.106873 0.265776 0.614018 1.303780 2.709931
2026-03-01 0.011448 0.036753 0.100552 0.258342 0.613463 1.332663 2.827599
2026-03-08 0.009831 0.033155 0.094230 0.250073 0.610160 1.355558 2.934763
2026-03-15 0.008558 0.030273 0.089249 0.244295 0.611620 1.387919 3.062409
2026-03-22 0.007895 0.029091 0.088474 0.248584 0.635973 1.469012 3.293038
2026-03-29 0.007474 0.028588 0.089431 0.257267 0.671116 1.575004 3.580864
2026-04-05 0.006954 0.027658 0.089091 0.262600 0.698858 1.667005 3.845091